- 2017: Risky assets soar, Bitcoin bubble, income gap widens, debt soars, wages stagnant, brick and mortar retail closures
- 2018: Consensus is bullish on growth and stocks, geopolitical uncertainty rises, volatility rises, debt soars, and inflation tame
- Watch for central bank missteps, policy errors, social unrest, and
- U.S. Equity markets surged during November on hopes of a new tax reform bill
- Overseas Asian markets outpaced Europe
- Changes at the Fed suggest little disruption in interest rate policies while Q3‐2017 growth was revised higher
- Innovations in technology continue to keep a lid on inflation and real wage growth
- An attorney, not an economist is the new Fed Chair pick
- Why the labor market is now NOT a driver of higher inflation or growth
- Balancing portfolio risks and opportunities where there is a productive use of capital investment
- Continued strong market returns with improved earnings and economic growth; sustainability remains a question
- Limited progress thus far on potential acceleration catalysts (health care, tax reform, and infrastructure)
- The world remains a dangerous place; the Fed remains committed to rate hikes – risks abound
- Equity markets were mixed but clustered around flat; we see
increasing opportunities outside the U.S.
- Despite low inflation and wage growth, the Fed seems intent
on raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet
- GDP posted a 3% rise in Q2, but longer-term productivity and
population growth challenges remain
- Financial markets ignore uncertainty and chaos – what gives?
- Why diversification is now most crucial to investors
- Beware of the pundits – they are only right until they are ultimately wrong
- Continued strong market returns with a robust earnings recovery led by energy; is it sustainable?
- Lack of catalysts (health care, tax reform, and infrastructure) and Fed rate hikes have helped stall faster growth
- The world remains a dangerous place; the weak expansion is aging and equilibrium is likely unstable
- Equity markets continued to plod higher for the most part; we see increasing opportunities outside the U.S.
- Despite additional planned Fed rate hikes, longer term interest rates fell
- Economic growth should rebound from 1st quarter doldrums, but remains challenged longer‐term
Risk aversion and implied volatility measures are at all‐time lows – what does this mean?
Equity and bond valuations appear rich with little evidence to further support multiple expansion.
Economic growth remains sub‐par and a lack of productivity gains suggest the current path will not change anytime soon.
Suppressed financial and economic volatility continues todrive financial asset prices higher.
Hard economic and fundamental data remain disconnected from soft data (e.g., sentiment).
The bloom is off the rose for the Trump reflation trade as the timing and scope of fiscal change remains in question.